Inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months to September 2026, unemployment was 4.2% and payrolls have changed by +776,000 jobs since January 2025.
Live data from FRED, refreshed twice a day. Each comparison with Biden uses the same number of months into his term.
Trump’s second term is measured from January 2025 (he took office on January 20) to the latest release. Biden’s column covers the same number of months from January 2021. Mortgage rates use the last weekly reading on or before each inauguration and the same number of days after it.
| Indicator | Trump (2025–) | Change | Biden, same point | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, 12-month change) | 3.0% → 3.7% Jan 2025 → Sep 2026 | +0.7 pts | 1.4% → 8.2% Jan 2021 → Sep 2022 | +6.8 pts |
| Cumulative rise in consumer prices | CPI 319.0 → 336.3 Jan 2025 → Sep 2026 | +5.4% | CPI 262.7 → 296.3 Jan 2021 → Sep 2022 | +12.8% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.0% → 4.2% Jan 2025 → Sep 2026 | +0.2 pts | 6.4% → 3.5% Jan 2021 → Sep 2022 | −2.9 pts |
| Nonfarm payroll jobs | 158.3M → 159.0M Jan 2025 → Sep 2026 | +776,000 | 142.9M → 153.6M Jan 2021 → Sep 2022 | +10.72 million |
| Real GDP growth (avg. annualized, per quarter) | 6 quarters Q1 2025 – Q2 2026 | 2.1% | 6 quarters Q1 2021 – Q2 2022 | 3.8% |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.04% → 7.40% Jan 16, 2025 → Oct 15, 2026 | +0.36 pts | 2.79% → 6.92% Jan 14, 2021 → Oct 13, 2022 | +4.13 pts |
| Real average hourly earnings | $37.79 → $37.81 Jan 2025 → Sep 2026 | +0.1% | $38.32 → $36.96 Jan 2021 → Sep 2022 | −3.5% |
Monthly figures for January include days before each inauguration. Economic conditions differed: Biden took office during the recovery from the 2020 pandemic recession, which affects jobs and unemployment comparisons. Recent figures are preliminary and are revised by the agencies that publish them.
The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index was 3.7% in September 2026, compared with 3.0% in January 2025. At the same point in Biden’s term (September 2022) it was 8.2%, up from 1.4% in January 2021.
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, compared with 4.0% in January 2025. At the same point in Biden’s term it was 3.5% (September 2022), down from 6.4% in January 2021 as the economy recovered from the pandemic.
Source: FRED UNRATE. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
Nonfarm payrolls changed by +776,000 jobs from January 2025 to September 2026 (20 months), for a total of 159.0 million nonfarm payroll jobs. Over the same 20 months of Biden’s term (to September 2022) payrolls changed by +10.72 million, a period when jobs lost in 2020 were still coming back.
Source: FRED PAYEMS. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q2 2026. Across Q1 2025 – Q2 2026, quarterly growth averaged 2.1%. Over the same quarters of Biden’s term (Q1 2021 – Q2 2022) it averaged 3.8%. Both first quarters include a few weeks before inauguration day.
Source: FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% in the week of October 15, 2026, compared with 7.04% in the last reading before the inauguration (January 16, 2025). At the same point in Biden’s term (October 13, 2022) it was 6.92%, up from 2.79%.
Source: FRED MORTGAGE30US. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector workers, adjusted for inflation with the CPI and shown in September 2026 dollars, went from $37.79 in January 2025 to $37.81 in September 2026 (+0.1%). Over the same stretch of Biden’s term (January 2021 to September 2022) real hourly earnings changed by −3.5%.
Source: FRED CES0500000003 deflated by CPIAUCSL. Dashed lines mark January 20, 2021 and January 20, 2025.
For prices in any year since 1913, use our inflation calculator. Federal borrowing is tracked on the national debt page.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonally adjusted CPI. The 12-month rate was 3.0% in January 2025, the month Trump took office. Overall, the CPI is up 5.4% since January 2025.
Nonfarm payroll employment changed by +776,000 from January 2025 to September 2026, an average of +39,000 per month. Payroll figures are revised in later months and in the annual benchmark revision.
The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September 2026, compared with 4.0% in January 2025. There is no October 2025 figure because the household survey was not conducted during the government shutdown.
This page compares equal stretches of each term. From January 2025 to September 2026 the 12-month inflation rate went from 3.0% to 3.7%; from January 2021 to September 2022 it went from 1.4% to 8.2%. Payrolls changed by +776,000 under Trump and +10.72 million from January 2021 to September 2022, when jobs lost in the pandemic were still returning.
All figures are pulled from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, which republishes official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Freddie Mac. The page refreshes twice a day, so new releases appear within about 12 hours.
TrumpInsight Editorial Team
News & Research Desk
Indicators are pulled automatically from official U.S. statistics published through FRED and compared over equal stretches of each presidential term.
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